Prediction
06
Fire-spread forecasting
From the detected hotspots, a short-horizon forecast of where fire could travel — time-stepped isochrones from 15 minutes to 3 hours.
How it worksIt pulls LANDFIRE surface fuel plus slope and aspect for the fire's neighborhood, combines them with live wind and a fuel-moisture scenario, and computes a Rothermel rate of spread. Fire is seeded at the hotspots and advanced with elliptical propagation; arrival times contour into nested isochrones. All horizons compute once and cache, so the time slider is instant.
Why it fitsRothermel is the surface-fire model behind BehavePlus and FARSITE — the lineage the fire community trusts. Grounding it in real fuel, terrain, and wind gives a defensible, directional read on near-term movement. It is short-horizon decision support, not a validated perimeter.